Mr. WHITE. That would be a correct assessment, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. What new plans do you have for developing extensive warning systems for tornados and things of that kind? Do you have any new plans between the two of you?

Mr. WHITE. We have not, Mr. Chairman, formulated our plans in detail. However, I can comment on some of our thinking with respect to these hazards warning systems.

You mentioned tornadoes. We have now under study a program which we hope will improve our tornado warning systems throughout the midwestern part of the United States.

We are also conducting studies for the more conventional kinds of weather warnings such as warnings for marine activities.

In the nonmeteorological areas, we hope soon to embark upon a much larger program in the problems of forecasting the space environment in support of manned space flight. An initial effort along these lines is presently being carried out at the Central Radio Propagation Laboratories, and this will be expanded.

Of course, there is a great need to improve our seismic sea wave warning system, and there are plans for doing this.

Lastly, of course, while we do not yet have the capability for predicting earthquakes, it is clear to us that there is a need for considerable research into the problem of learning how to predict such earthquakes. So we will be looking at all of these new hazards warning problems. The CHAIRMAN. When I used the word "tornado," I should have added "hurricane," and maybe "cyclone." I think it would be well for the record for you to put in a very brief definition of the difference between a cyclone, a hurricane, and a tornado.

Mr. WHITE. I will be pleased to do that.
Senator McGEE. And a "twister."

The CHAIRMAN. Yes; a "twister." Put it in the record so that if anyone asks us, we will look very wise in telling him the difference. I have no further questions.

(The following definitions were subsequently submitted for the record as requested :)

Hurricane.-A large revolving storm originating over tropical ocean waters with winds of 74 miles per hour (64 knots) or more blowing counterclockwise around the center of low atmospheric pressure.

Tornado. A violently rotating funnel-shaped cloud extending toward the earth from the base of a thundercloud. The winds rotate counterclockwise and often exceed 300 miles per hour.

Twister.-A colloquial term for tornado.

Cyclone.--An area of low atmospheric pressure with winds blowing counterclockwise around the center.

Anticyclone. An area of high atmospheric pressure with winds blowing clockwise around the center.

Typhoon.-A severe tropical cyclone in the western Pacific (called a hurricane in the United States).

Senator Cotton?

Senator COTTON. Just one.

I note that before you entered Government service, you were head of the Research Center of Travelers in Hartford, which is interesting to me, because I spent my college days at Wesleyan, in Middletown. I worked a couple of summers for Travelers, though my labors were not scientific.

Which leads me to ask you this: How extensive is the research by insurance companies, universities, and other non-Government organi

zations? Are they receiving funds or grants from the Government, and how do we coordinate Government research with private research? That is three questions.

Mr. WHITE. I will try to answer them, Senator.

First, yes, there is extensive research being done in the non-Govern*ment community, universities, industrial companies, nonprofit corporations. In fact, most of the research in the field of geophysics and environmental sciences is done out of Government and not inside of the Government.

There are many agencies who do fund and support these research activities through grants and contracts. The two agencies with which Admiral Karo and I have been associated have done this. The National Science Foundation, the agencies of the Department of Defense and many other agencies have interests in environmental sciences and they sponsor and support research activities in nongovernmental installations.

Senator COTTON. By "environmental activities," you are talking about weather?

Mr. WHITE. We are talking about weather, oceanography, seismology, geomagnetism, physics of the upper atmosphere, and hydrology. These are the things we define as the environmental sciences.

Senator COTTON. Could the objectives be cataloged under weather research?

Mr. WHITE. Only part of them can.

Senator COTTON. They have other objectives, but I am talking pri#marily about weather.

1

Mr. WHITE. Yes, sir. If we confine ourselves to weather my statement is still true, there are many agencies involved. I think there are something like 17 different Government agencies involved. Senator COTTON. That are making grants?

Mr. WHITE. I am not sure whether all are awarding grants or contracts. A large number of them are. These activities are coordinated by various mechanisms within the executive branch of the Government. The first mechanism is through the Interagency Committee for Atmospheric Sciences, which is an arm of the Federal Council for Science and Technology. This Committee coordinates research activities of all the agencies. There is also the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services. This office is responsible for coordinating and planning the total Federal effort in providing meteorological services by all agencies.

Senator COTTON. No doubt it is unreasonable to ask you to answer this question, but the answer might be supplied for the record: Have you a general idea of the approximate expenditures that are made in the weather field that are strictly governmental, and the expenditures that are in the form of grants to, and contracts and so forth with, private research?

Mr. WHITE. I don't readily have it.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator Pastore?

Senator PASTORE. Off the record; a practical question.
(Discussion off the record.)

Senator COTTON. This does not represent a new trend, that the east coast will dry out?

Mr. WHITE. You are asking me to make a long-range forecast. This is much more difficult than making a short-range forecast. We

can't say whether this trend will continue or whether it will change. What we can say is that the drought condition in the eastern part of the country will require a rather extended period of rainfall in order to be broken.

The CHAIRMAN. Are their cycles?

Mr. WHITE. Yes, Mr. Chairman. There are cycles in weather. They are quite irregular. We do go through periods when you have dry conditions, and other periods when you have wet conditions. The CHAIRMAN. They don't reoccur necessarily, every 10 years or every 20 years.

Mr. WHITE. That is the point, Mr. Chairman. They recur, but on every irregular schedules. So that it would be very hard to call them cycles, which implies something with great regularity.

The CHAIRMAN. What you are saying is that the people who are suffering on the east coast had better be thinking, as members of this committee have been for a long time, about conservation of their water resources.

Mr. WHITE. I think that is quite in order, Mr. Chairman.

Senator PASTORE. Is there any way that we can predict these cycles-let me ask the question this way: Do we know the cause of it?

Mr. WHITE. Senator, we know the cause only to the extent that I have described it, which really is not understanding the cause in the way we would like. We cannot presently predict them. Our best techniques only allow us to give some outlook for 30 days in advance.

We just do not know enough about the atmosphere to make predictions of a longer range than that with any skill.

The CHAIRMAN. You don't believe in almanacs, then? [Laughter.] Mr. WHITE. Mr. Chairman, there are many things in the

almanac

The CHAIRMAN. Or groundhogs, or Indian lore, or things of that kind?

Mr. WHITE. Some of the old wives' tales which are cited in almanacs, and other literature sources, do have a sound scientific basis. It is not possible to throw out all of these so-called old wives' tales, because some have a sound basis.

The CHAIRMAN. You wouldn't suggest that we not encourage their publication, because it is a great indoor sport to read the almanac, then listen to you fellows and have a big discussion about who is right and who is wrong.

Mr. WHITE. Mr. Chairman, I would hate to take away from the American public the opportunity to make comparisons between ourselves and the almanac.

The CHAIRMAN. I have a question which has bothered me. I think maybe you have answered this once or twice before for the record. We are very conscious of hurricanes; are we not?

Mr. WHITE. Yes, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. It seems to me that years back we had fewer hurricanes. Do we have more, or less, or do we seem to have more because we are reporting them more accurately?

Mr. WHITE. I think that in your latter comment there is some truth. Early in the century, of course, we did not have the observations. It is quite clear that it was not possible for use to locate or identify

many storms which were hurricanes, so perhaps there was a feeling that there were fewer of them. It is true that since we have had modern observation techniques, I do not think that there has been any noticeable or significant change over long periods of time of the numbers of hurricanes which we encounter.

The CHAIRMAN. Is your warning system-I am sure it has been perfected in the past 10 years to a degree that you can pretty well tell the people of New England now when something is coming in time; is that correct? Or you can tell them of the possibility of its coming? Mr. WHITE. If we speak of hurricanes, Mr. Chairman, I think it is true that over the past decade we have been able to establish a warning system for hurricanes, using modern technology, which now makes it almost impossible for a hurricane to approach the coast of the United States undetected.

It is possible for us to give adequate warnings in most cases. We do not forecast them perfectly. Occasionally we make errors. At least we know where they are at all times because we do have this kind of technology available to us.

The CHAIRMAN. And you do fairly well on tidal waves, too, do you not?

Mr. WHITE. I prefer to let Admiral Karo answer this question, Mr. Chairman.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator Monroney?

Senator MONRONEY. I have no questions.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator McGee?

Senator MCGEE. I have only one observation, and that would affect the admiral, I think. I am probably the only one here who ever heard of Lyons, Nebr., where it says you were born. My home is in Norfolk, which is not many miles from there. I talked to my mother last night and they had "twister" warnings at Lyons, Nebr., which is why I threw in the word "twister." Plus two-and-a-half inches of rain, which we would be happy to share with New England. I have no questions.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator Scott, do you have any questions?
Senator SCOTT. No, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator Morton?

Senator MORTON. No, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. Senator Bartlett?

Senator BARTLETT. Dr. White, in response to the questions put by the chairman, you agreed with him that many countries are involved in weather work in the Antarctic. Are they doing this in close association or is each country operating its own stations?

Mr. WHITE. Senator, each country essentially does operate its own stations, but it is done in very close association with the other countries. All the data is exchanged amongst groups there, so that all the countries there have all the data and are able to use it properly.

Senator BARTLETT. Is this chiefly pure research or is it weather forecasting or both?

Mr. WHITE. I am not familiar with all of the activities in the Antarctic. I am, of course, mostly familiar with weather activities. But there is a large complex of activities going on in the Antarctic concerned with the weather, the state of the upper atmosphere, the state of the snow cover, the ice cover, its age, what is happening to it.

There are many different kinds of geophysical studies going on. Senator BARTLETT. Are there many studies relating to weather only? Mr. WHITE. Yes. There is quite an extensive weather network now in the Antarctic maintained by the various countries.

Senator BARTLETT. Do they help you in making weather forecasts for the United States?

Mr. WHITE. The influence of the weather in the Antarctic upon the weather in the United States is something we are not sure about. It is unlikely that these weather observations in the Antarctic influence the United States over short periods of time, like a day or two.

Senator BARTLETT. On the other hand, you rely more upon information coming from the Arctic regions for forecasts here; do you not? Mr. WHITE. Yes. The weather information from the Arctic regions is absolutely essential to forecasting in the United States.

Senator MCGEE. Do you suggest that most of our storms come out of Alaska?

Senator BARTLETT. I suggest no such thing.

No disturbances come out of Alaska.

Let me ask: Are we doing a comparable amount of pure research in the Arctic, comparable with that we are embarked on in the Antarctic?

Mr. WHITE. I am not familiar with this, Senator. I can tell you that insofar as weather observations are concerned, we are paying much more attention to the Arctic than we are to the Antarctic because this is the weather that affects the United States.

Senator BARTLETT. You mentioned, Dr. White, the possibility that earthquakes might be predicted. Is there substantial hope that this goal might be achieved?

Mr. WHITE. Senator, I think that the only answer that one can give at this moment is that one does not know whether a practical earthquake warning system can be developed. One can also say that we do have the scientific knowledge and technology that will enable us to do the research and conduct the studies that would lead us to this answer as to whether or not it would be possible.

Senator BARTLETT. This is something that in your opinion ought to be pursued?

Mr. WHITE. I think so.

Senator BARTLETT. I hope so. It will be a great boon to mankind to be able to forecast such things.

Admiral, will the structure of the Coast and Geodetic Survey be altered in the new arrangement?

Admiral KARO. Basically, no, Senator Bartlett.

I feel it is a great challenge to my organization because the competence that we have can be applied to even greater fields. In the past we have had, you might say, artificial barriers beyond which we could not move.

Integrating the whole environmental sciences means the competence of the Coast and Geodetic Survey and the others can all be joined so that we can pursue a study of the environment from the beginning to the end, so to speak. I think it really enhances the opportunities for better service to the country.

Senator BARTLETT. Is the Coast and Geodetic Survey made up at this time of enlisted men, officers, and civilians?