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Air Travel Demand in the Washington-Baltimore Region, 1970-1990: A Summary Report

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

ABSTRACT:

This report summarizes the air travel demand forecasts for the Washington-Baltimore Region by five-year intervals from 1970 through 1990. Commercial air passengers, commercial air cargo tonnage, and general aviation operations are all included.

These forecasts provide a basis for analyzing the capacity characteristics of expansion plans proposed for existing airports and plans for new airports in the Washington-Baltimore Region. They also show clearly that major expansion of capacities should be planned now both for commercial airports and for general aviation airports.

PREFACE

This report summarizes the second phase of work by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) designed to produce a long-range air facilities plan for the Washington area as part of a comprehensive, long-range plan for the area's physical development. This second phase forecasts the air travel demand by five-year intervals from 1970 to 1990. Together with information about existing air facilities in the Washington area, developed in the first phase of COG's air facilities planning program,* COG now possesses the basic data it needs to begin analyzing alternative airport development proposals.

The work summarized in this report was sponsored jointly by COG and the Regional Planning Council of Baltimore, and was done by the aviation consulting firm of R. Dixon Speas Associates. The study was conducted jointly, covering both the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas, because of the overlap in their air travel markets.

* Air Facilities Planning in Metropolitan Washington, Washington, D.C.: Metro

politan Washington Council of Governments, January 1968.

INTRODUCTION

The Washington-Baltimore Region represents a significant concentration of demand for commercial air travel. It generates over five percent of U.S. domestic air trips, although it contains slightly more than two percent of U.S. population. Several factors combine to cause this level of demand.

The Region is the seat of the Federal Government, and this contributes a substantial amount of traffic. According to the 1966 Airport Access Survey, conducted by the Office of High Speed Ground Transportation (OHSGT) of the U.S. Department of Transportation, approximately 39 percent of trips to the Region were made on business activities related to the Federal Government. This represents approximately 3.7 million trip originations in 1967, the base year for this study, or approximately two percent of the U.S. total trip originations.

In addition to the influence of the U.S. Government, tourism, industrial influences, and relatively high average incomes play significant roles in the Region's air travel importance.

The Region's leadership in commercial air travel demand is matched by similar leadership in the concentration of private airplanes. This concentration is linked to high household incomes and other related factors.

Although air cargo has not been as significant in the Washington-Baltimore Region as in many other large metropolitan centers, it is significant. This type of demand is related to light manufacturing and mail activities.

The Region is served by three major commercial airports-Washington National, Dulles International, and Friendship International-as well as by 20 general aviation airports. Within the Region, the Washington area presently contributes about 80 percent of the Commercial Trip Originations,

60 percent of the General Aviation Aircraft,

54 percent of the Air Freight,

74 percent of the Air Mail, and

72 percent of the Commercial Airport Capacity.

This report summarizes (1) the air travel demand forecasts which have been made in terms of commercial passengers, cargo, and private airplanes, (2) the conversion of these forecasts into the number of take-offs and landings required at commercial and general aviation airports, and (3) the implications of the forecasts for present facilities. The report ends with a short section which relates its findings to the next steps COG should take toward the development of a metropolitan airport plan.

This report provides projections of future air travel demand under a variety of assumptions as to the future existence and role of Washington National Airport, so that they will be applicable for planning purposes under various policy alternatives. These assumptions are:

I. That Washington National Airport, as well as Dulles International and Friendship International Airports, would be operating and would be expandable in an unrestricted manner.

II.

III.

That Washington National Airport would be closed, while the other two airports would be operating and would be expandable in an unrestricted

manner.

That all three airports would be operating, but that operations and traffic volumes would be restricted at Washington National Airport, while the other two airports would be operating and would be expandable in an unrestricted

manner.