would have been the response? We now have the smog and are taking piecemeal actions aimed at ensuring that it does not get too much worse but there is little serious hope of major improvement. If the SST fleet does produce stratospheric smog in 1990 what hopes would there be for a reve sal then? By then so many jobs will be involved that the arguments will be the same as those used to justify the condition of Los Angeles now.

We do know that when particles appear in the stratosphere they absorb sunlight and lead to higher temperatures. After the Mt. Agung, Bali eruption in 1963 temperatures in the lower stratosphere increased by 5-8°C over equatorial regions (18). We do not know whether the volcano introduced particles directly or whether it introduced gases (sulphur dioxide and water vapor) which contributed to particle growth.

The small particles introduced by the volcano absorbed sunlight and this caused a rise in temperature of the lower tropical stratosphere. In turn this higher temperature permits more water vapor to enter the stratosphere (as the cold trap is heated) and there has been some evidence from noctilucent cloud occurrence that volcanoes are associated with the clouds. My point here is that if the SST's introduce substances from which particles can form then nature can augment the additional water vapor introduced by the planes by its own water vapor from the troposphere passing upwards through the cold trap.

5 GLOBAL POLLUTION AND ENERGY RESOURCES

500 SST's flying 7 hours/day and using 28000 lbs of fuel per hour per engine will require about 340 million barrels of fuel per year. This should be compared with the present jet fuel production rate - about 200 million barrels per year (19). The future SST requirements will exceed all present jet uses.

If we assume that 100 barrels of crude oil give 44 barrels of jet fuel the total crude oil necessary will be about 775 million barrels per year or in round figures 2 million barrels per day. As can be seen in the

table below this is as large as the total production of several of the oil producing regions and is a significant fraction of the U.S. use.

The SST could use all of the production from Alaska or put another way
we will need to develop an oilfield the size of the Alaskan field just to
take care of the SST. We have all been made aware of the potential envi-
ronmental effects of the development of Alaskan oil. Such effects must be
added to the more obvious effects of the direct introduction of pollutants.
We should also ask if this additional jump in the demand for oil will
influence prices to the rest of the consumers. There has been growing
evidence of a squeeze on oil supplies and prices in the past months.
The U.S. net proved reserves of oil are about 30 billion barrels (20)
and we use about 5 billion barrels per year. Thus a six year supply is

available

but this time figure has decreased over the past years. Global proved reserves are about 600 billion barrels and at present production rates of about 17 billion barrels per year the global supply can last 35 years. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences (21) includes an estimate of 2000 billion barrels as the ultimate possible global supply and with many other countries becoming industrialized so that annual use increases one can see that the 35 year figure is not un

reasonable.

The plastics industry represents a further future claim on this oil. One could argue that the prudent global inhabitant would attempt to use these relatively small reserves in the most efficient manner possible.

57-918 O-71 - 10

One measure of efficiency is the passenger miles obtained per gallon of

The claims on the DOT budget this year for the most efficient rail transit vehicles and systems already exceed the funds available (23). Those claims have been made by the public

sector of the economy, local governments backed by their local citizens and we see them now (wittingly or not) pursuing a policy of efficient use of natural resources, prolongation of the age of oil, and minimization of the global pollution problem. The private sector is asking that the funds be spent at the other end of the scale with opposite results.

A recent analysis of the rate of use of resources and its relationship with global pollution problems, population, capital investment, and quality of life is the work of Professor J. Forrester of M.I.T. presented to the House Banking Committee last October (24). He applies system dynamics

based upon computer modelling to study the change with time of these five factors. There are clear interactions between the factors.

Pollution

increases as rate of natural resource depletion increases and quality of life goes down. But many interactions appear that are more subtle and Professor Forrester shows that it is not always the obvious short-run action that leads to optimum long run conditions. His work raises questions about the desirability of across-the-board technological progress at the present rate; an important hope fɔr the future is that he finds that growth conditions can give way to an equilibrium situation (constant population,

high quality of life, and constant pollution). One of the prerequisites

is a lower natural resource usage rate than the present.

I would respectfully suggest that all those concerned with political

It is quite decision-making consider his arguments and discuss them. possible for example that the current fund request, if channeled into development of high technology land based transportation systems (refined versions of BART for example) could ultimately improve the quality of life for a large number of people, decrease rather than increase the rate of usage of natural resources, and decrease the global pollution levels. All this could be done without any change in the number of jobs involved.

Figure 1.

Temperature maps at an altitude of about 77000ft. to show

regions (enclosed) where clouds are most likely to form if additional moisture is present. The favored regions vary in position from day to day.

Figure 2.

Temperature cross-section for the period June-August to supple

ment that shown in my Scientific American article attached.

Shaded regions

denote areas of most probable additional cloud formation.

6.

CONCLUDING COMMENTS

The stratosphere is a region in which there is a very delicate balance between incoming solar radiation, chemical constituents and reactions, It is much easier infrared radiative processes and atmospheric motions. to disturb this balance in the stratosphere than it is in the troposphere and any disturbance persists for a much longer period of time.

The tro

rainfall

that

posphere contains a natural self cleansing mechanism
effectively removes much, but not all, of man's particulate injections
(or gaseous injections that evolve into particulates).

There is no such

mechanism in the stratosphere and much of the removal of contamination

occurs by exchange of air between the stratosphere which is a very slow process (several years for the middle stratosphere).

These facts should

be appreciated and fully understood before any deliberate long term changes are made.

I oppose all technological developments which will ultimately introduce quantities of trace materials directly into the stratosphere large enough to influence the natural balance. To my knowledge the SST program is the

first of man's efforts which have involved sufficiently large amounts of material so as to be comparable to the natural amounts involved and which can be avoided by deliberate action now. Carbon dioxide introduction is presently necessary for survival; SST development is not.

The additional water vapor introduced by the SST can have at least three effects: it can change the radiative heating rates: it can influence the ozone distribution and thereby also alter the radiative heating rates in the stratosphere as well as the ultraviolet radiation reaching the troposphere, and it can. produce additional cloudiness in regions that are already close to saturation.

I have studied at length the global ozone budget including its seasonal changes (25-27). Large scale atmospheric motions contribute significantly to the amount of ozone in the lower stratosphere a finding borne out by a comprehensive dynamical model of the atmosphere developed by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (28). Hydrogen compounds appear to play a significant role in the ozone balance and the projected SST development will add significantly to the stratospheric content of hydrogen compounds. The feedback between potential stratospheric clouds and the motion systems has not yet been studied. It is desirable to apply such comprehensive models to the "modified" stratosphere but we still have considerable way to go before the natural stratosphere is understood in sufficient detail.

Reactions involving the oxides of nitrogen seem important (11) and indeed nitric acid has been observed so it is not just water vapor from the SST that is of concern. We should also bear in mind that although particles from the volcano had a large effect on the stratospheric temperature it may have been gases that were actually injected with a subsequent evolution of particles. The possibilities for such evolution are very high in a stable region with a strong short wave solar flux. I do not think we can be sure of the mass of particles that may evolve from SST exhaust products. We must also consider the particle-water vapor interaction which are discussed

more particles can give rise to more

heating and therefore more water vapor is admitted to the stratosphere.