Fig. III U.S. ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE (1971-2000) TABLE 4.-U.S. DEMAND FOR PRETROLEUM IN 1971 AND SELECTED FUTURE YEARS [In millions of barrels a day] USDI, Dec. 19721 Case II. Case III Case IV. NPC, Nov. 1971 4 191.9 2000 1 U.S. Energy Through the Year 2000. U.S. Department of the Interior, Dec. 1972. 2 U.S. Energy, A Summary Review, U.S. Department of the Interior, Jan. 1972. U.S. Energy Outlook, Natinal Petroleum Council, Dec. 1972. U.S. Energy Outlook, An Initial Appraisal, 1971-85, National Petroleum Council, Nov. 1971. Development of Petroleum Demand and Supply Balances During the study, regional petroleum and supply balances were developed for three of the five Petroleum Administration and Defense (PAD) Districts in the United States. One of these districts (PAD I) includes 16 East Coast states from Maine to Florida; the second (PAD II) includes 15 mid-continent states; and the third (PAD III) includes the six Gulf coast states of New Mexico, Texas Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Balances for these three districts were based on regional demand projections published in the NPC study of November 1971. The three regional demand forecasts, in turn were modified to conform to the total U.S. petroleum demand requirements published by the USDI in December 1972. In general, these regional supply and demand balances were developed to establish the current and future reliance of the mid-continent states (PAD II) and the East Coast states (PAD I) on Gulf coast (PAD III) suppliers of petroleum. Specifically, these balances were developed to determine : 1. Current volume of crude oil and refined petroleum products moving from PAD III to PAD I and II. 2. Future volume of crude oil and refined petroleum moving from PAD III to PAD I and II. 3. Projected throughput volume of imported crude through a Louisiana offshore oil terminal. The first step in constructing the balances was to determine regional demand, and the second step was to determine the origin of crude and refined products moving into each district from other districts. Petroleum demand growth rates for the three PAD districts are included in Table 5. The upper portion of the table shows the annual growth rates implied by the November 1971 NPC forecasts, and the lower portion indicates the modified growth rates, which were used in constructing the demand and supply balances included in this study. The original NPC forecasts were reduced using USDI estimates for the 1971-1975 and 1976-1980 periods, since data from the Bureau of Mines (USDI) indicated that petroleum demand was not increasing as rapidly as projected by NPC. For the 1971-1975 period, the reductions range from two-tenths to six-tenths of a percentage point for the three districts. The USDI forecasted annual growth rate for the United States, however, is only three-fourths as large as the NPC figure (3.4 percent, compared to 4.5 percent). For the 1976-1980 period, the adjustment lowered the NPC annual growth rates by .2 percent, in line with the difference between the USDI and NPC forecasted annual growth rates for the entire nation. The NPC forecasts were not altered for the 1981-1985 period: and after 1985, the USDI national growth rate of 2.4 percent per year was used for all PAD districts. TABLE 5.-AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN PETROLEUM DEMAND FOR THE UNITED STATES AND PAD DISTRICTS I, II, AND III The projected annual growth in refining capacity for each of the three PAD districts and for Louisiana is shown in Table 6. These data indicate that PAD District III has the largest refining capacity for each of the years 1970 to 2000, and that, by the year 2000, this capacity will have increased to 13,162 thousand barrels a day, a 173 percent increase over the 1970 figure of 4,825.8. On an annual basis, the largest increases for PAD III are projected to occur during the years 1976-1980 (5.8 percent) and 1981-1985 (3.5 percent). Prior to 1975, however. PAD III capacity is projected to increase only 1.9 percent annually, in contrast to 4.0 percent for PAD II and 4.4 percent for PAD I. 26-400 O-74 - pt. 2 - 48 TABLE 6.-PROJECTED ANNUAL GROWTH IN REFINING CAPACITY FOR PAD DISTRICTS I, II, AND III [In thousands of barrels per day] Like PAD III, PADS I and II will experience substantial increases in refining capacity to the year 2000, although at a lesser absolute amount overall. Annual percentage growth rates for PAD II remain fairly constant throughout the period, but the annual rates for PAD I jump dramatically during the years 19761980 (10.4 percent) and 1981-1985 (7.0 percent). A detailed discussion of the actual and projected demand and supply of petroleum for PAD districts I, II, and III and for Louisiana is presented on the following pages in both narrative and graphic form. PAD I The actual and projected demand and supply of petroleum for PAD I is shown in Table 7. As indicated, the demand for petroleum in the district will more than double between 1970 and 2000. In 1970, the primary sources of crude in the district were PAD III and imports. Only a very small amount was produced in District I for use in District I, and this amount is projected to become even smaller in the future. Shipments of crude into District I from PAD III are similarly projected to decrease steadily through time, from 651 thousand barrels a day in 1970 to 300 in the year 2000. Imported crude, on the other hand, will increase substantially in the future-from 579 thousand barrels a day in 1970 to 4,952 thousand barrels a day in 2000. Data on crude runs is based on the refining capacity expansion shown previously in Table 6 for PAD I. Beginning in 1975, crude runs are assumed to represent 92 percent of refining capacity. According to a December 1972 USDI publication entitled Trends in Capacity Utilization, 1,070 thousand barrels per day of additional refining capacity were scheduled for PAD I at the beginning of 1973. This was 94 percent of all expansions under consideration at the time. Although the USDI estimate includes projects currently blocked by environmental considerations, the data demonstrated industry interest as well as PAD I requirements for new refining capacity. Currently the East Coast accounts for more than 40 percent of the U.S. petroleum demand, but has less than 12 percent of the U.S. refining capacity. (Fig. IV indicates projected petroleum demand and refining capacity for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 in PAD districts I, II, and III.) |